Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Business First of Columbus:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’r e actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economu grows 95 percent of the saidthe chamber’s Marty He predicted that the currenrt economic downturn will end aroundr September but that the unemployment rate will remainj high through the first half of next Investment won’t snap back as quicklhy as it usually does after a recession, Regalisa said. Inflation, however, looms as a potentialp problem because of thefederal government’a huge budget deficits and the massived amount of dollars pumped into the economty by the , he said.
If this stimulus is not unwound once the economyt beginsto recover, higher interest ratea could choke off improvement in the housing market and businesas investment, he said. “The economy has got to be running on its own by the middlew ofnext year,” Regalia said. Almost every major inflationary periodin U.S. history was precedexd by heavydebt levels, he noted. The chancezs of a double-dip recession will be lowet if Ben Bernanke is reappointedc chairman of the Federal Regalia said. If Presidenyt Obama appoints his economic Larry Summers, to chair the Fed, that would signalp the monetary spigot would remain open for a longerr time, he said.
A coalescinfg of the Fed and the Obama administrationis “notg something the markets want to see,” Regalia Obama has declined to say whether he will reappoint Bernanke, whose term ends in February. Meanwhile, more than half of smal l business owners expect the recession to last at least another two according to a survey of IntuigPayroll customers. But 61 percentr expect their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on their own abilitiexs but bearish on the factors they can’t control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for .
“Evenb in the gloomiest economy, there are opportunities to A separate survey of small busines s owners by found that 57 percenty thought the economy wasgetting worse, while 26 percent thought the economy was improving. More than half planned to decreases spending on business development in the next six onthe U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Web site.